ARV Estimator from Comps

A good comp is a recently sold property within roughly 0.5 miles of the subject, with similar square footage (within 20%), bedroom and bathroom count, and condition. Sold within the last 90-120 days is ideal; longer than 6 months and the data is less reliable. Active listings and pending sales are not comps — only closed sales reflect what buyers actually paid.

We weight comps by how recently they sold. A comp that closed last month gets full weight; one that closed 6 months ago gets reduced weight. The math: weight = max(0.5, 1 - (months_ago × 0.083)) — meaning weight drops by roughly 8% per month, with a floor at 50%. Older comps still count, just less.

Distance weight = max(0.6, 1 - (miles × 0.4)). A comp at 0.0 miles gets full weight; at 0.5 miles gets 80% weight; at 1.0 mile gets 60% weight. Properties further than 1 mile in mixed neighborhoods often have meaningfully different price-per-square-foot, so we cap their influence at 60%.

A single comp could be an outlier — overpaid by an emotional buyer, distressed sale below market, or an unusual property feature. Three to five comps blended together smooth out individual quirks and produce a more reliable ARV estimate. Most appraisers and lenders require at least 3 comps for the same reason.

Subject-specific features that move price independently of square footage: lot size beyond ~25% variance, garage spaces, pool, recent kitchen remodel, fence, view, school zone differences, HOA. Adjust your final ARV up or down 5-10% based on how the subject compares to comps on these factors. Also: this tool assumes the subject will be in fully renovated condition matching the comps — that's the ARV concept.

For wholesale work, no — AVMs are designed for retail listings and tend to over-estimate ARV by 5-15% in distressed-property markets because they cannot see condition. Use AVMs as a sanity check, not as your primary number. Manual comp analysis (this calculator) is the standard for wholesale.